Hi,
Looking on the numbers of Coronavirus cases on the newspapers an news site you can easily see the Coronavirus case rate is growing up in logarithmic rate.
That is scary. You start to realize that pretty soon it will get to you, or to your relatives. As one person spread the virus to another 2-2.5 people (R0=2.0-2.5).
So we are all in quarantine according to the guidelines (which gets stricter and stricter everyday). The purpose is to slow down the the pandemic – “To flatten the curve”.
The number of total cases will be the same with or without the quarantine. But slowing down the cases rate means the peak number of Coronavirus cases be lower. And the health system will be able to handle those cases and the toll rate will be lower.
But looking on the Coronavirus cases graph in Israel we are missing a big point – how many Coronavirus test were made each day.
Not getting in too much to statistics: If a week ago we had 1000 test and 10 cases it one 1% cases of the population. But having today 10,000 tests with 100 cases is still 1%…
Although we have 10 times more cases from last week (100 against 10), we also have 10 times more tests. Means you need to normalize the number of cases to the number test done
So how do you find this value? You don’t. A Doc for biology we know pointed this issue for us and normalized it. Looking on the normalized graphs things it seems it doesn’t as bad as presented. And mainly – that stricter rules are not helpful in preventing and lowering the Coronavirus case rate. South Korea decided to have a large and specific amount of tests Instead of locking people in there houses (as China did)
The Coronavirus is pandemic, it causing and will cause many deaths and damage to the economy. But it isn’t the apocalypse, and maybe handling it like South Korea and Not China would have better for Israel.
Take Care
Gad
Coronavirus case graph (in blue is the number of new cases…)
Coronavirus lab tests
Percentage of cases out of tests